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Denmark’s future climate

Global warming is also affecting Denmark and not least the Realm of Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland. Average annual temperatures and precipitation are increasing and weather is becoming more extreme.

The table below shows some of the results of the DMI's calculations using global and regional climate models. Based on a specific scenario on future emissions of greenhouse gases, our climate models predict climate until 2100. Different model runs may yield different results and, therefore, climate changes are indicated as intervals.

Info box: Emissions scenarios
The extent of future greenhouse gas emissions depends on, e.g. population and socio-economic and technological developments. Future changes to these parameters are highly uncertain.

Emissions scenarios give an idea about possible future changes and are used to project future greenhouse gas emissions (see figure below). Scenarios are alternative interpretations of the future and do not depict a particular opinion or a certain reality.

Current emissions scenarios were developed in connection with the UN’s climate panel IPCC’s Third Assessment Report in 2000 (see detailed overview in the figure below). In connection with the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report to be published 2013/2014, new so-called RCP scenarios have been defined.

Overview of the four emissions scenarios defined in the IPCC Special Report on Scenarios (SRES) in 2000. Click to enlarge.
Left: CO2 emissions in different emissions scenarios. Right: CO2 concentrations in different emission scenarios. Click to enlarge.

More extreme weather

Many extreme weather phenomena will become even more extreme in the future.

During summer and autumn, tendency is that we will experience more heavy rainfalls and the heaviest rainfalls will become even heavier.

In Denmark, the heaviest storms are becoming heavier.

In the growing season, we will experience longer periods without rainfall and increased risk of drought.

A combination of stronger storms and more westerly winds will lead to future increases in storm surge heights along the West Coast of Jutland. Storm surge model calculations show that water levels rise by 0.3 m during the strongest storms in the Wadden Sea due to changes in wind - and this in addition to rising sea levels.

Lyngbyvejen at the DMI after a record cloudburst in Copenhagen on 2 July 2011. Photo Finn Majlergaard.

By Anne Mette K. Jørgensen with contributions from employees at the Danish Climate Centre at the DMI.

Edited by Niels Hansen og Carsten Ankjær Ludwigsen, translated by Marianne Brandt, kommunikation@dmi.dk